It is a painful month for cryptocurrency investors, at least the ones that bought high
If anything, Ethereum has always been very accurate in respecting chart patterns. That may or may not feel strange given how volatile these assets are.
If Ethereum has a strong track record of respecting trend lines within chart patterns we can realistically expect this to continue. Note, though, that is the underlying assumption of the forecast we make in this article.
Ethereum has two strong trendlines: the former resistance line at $400 (horizontal orange line) and the rising trend at $450. We expect phenomenal support in the $400 to $450 area. Based on today’s Ethereum price of $500 Ethereum trades 10 to 20 percent above this strong support.
Moreover, the way Ethereum corrects (crashes) after a strong rise has, so far, been identical. This is the oval annotated on the chart after every steep rise in the last year, the oval appears 3 times.
Based on the strong support level as well as the shape of the correction we expect Ethereum to stop falling anytime soon.
However, it support does not hold there will be significant damage in Ethereum, and, likely, in more assets in the cryptocurrency area, in which case we have to revise our thesis. We believe, however, that support will hold as most cryptocurrencies have crashed more than 70% since their peak around year-end. Weak hands have left the arena, time for strong hands to step in now.
Our Ethereum forecast is that the crash in cryptocurrencies is about to end, after which prices will consolidate around support levels. If, and that is a big IF, this happens as forecast, then it will set the stage for a new bull trend later this year, likely in the second part of 2018.